1. The Breakdown of Policy Permanence
Historically, the U.S. "checks and balances" system provided a "predictability premium" for investors. That premium has largely evaporated.
The "Executive Pendulum": Major trade and diplomatic frameworks (the Iran Deal, Paris Agreement, and now the 2025-2026 Trade War with Canada and Mexico) are no longer treated as binding national commitments. They are treated as Executive Orders that expire the moment a new President is inaugurated.
The February 2026 Tariff Crisis: On February 20, 2026, the Supreme Court struck down the administration’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose broad tariffs, ruling that "taxing power" belongs to Congress. However, within hours, the White House bypassed this by invoking Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, imposing a new 150-day "temporary" 15% surcharge.
Strategic takeaway: Even when the "check" (the Court) works, the "balance" is undermined by the executive’s ability to cycle through different obscure statutes to achieve the same result.
2. The "President for Life" Constraint
Regarding your concern about a permanent presidency, the legal firewall remains high, but the "normative" firewall is thinning.
The 22nd Amendment: As of 2026, there is no serious legal movement to repeal the two-term limit. It would require 38 states to agree, which is mathematically impossible in the current polarized climate.
The "Shadow" Continuity: The risk is not a single person staying for 50 years, but rather a dynastic or ideological capture of the administrative state. If a President can purge the civil service (the "Schedule F" transition) and appoint loyalists to the Department of Justice, the office becomes supreme even if the individual changes.
3. Investment Implications: "The Sovereign Flip"
The realization that "a friend today can be an enemy tomorrow" has led to a re-rating of U.S. risk.
Bilateral Fragility: If you invest in a project (e.g., green energy, semiconductors) based on a U.S. subsidy or treaty, you are now exposed to 4-year political cycles. If the next administration views that industry as "politically hostile," your investment can be wiped out by a single Executive Order.
The Rise of "Alt-Alliances": In early 2026, we see nations like Vietnam, India, and even Canada diversifying away from U.S. dependency. The EU has increasingly reached out to Beijing and New Delhi to build trade ties that are "Trump-proof" or "Presidency-proof." what does this mean? it means that no matter what kind of treaty any nation has (example Nato) if the USA president does not like it he will do whatever he wants and get out of the whole thing. USA is as on 24th Feb 2026 planning to take over Canada and Iceland both are close us allies but that does not protect them from USA. So if you are a us ally there is a great chance that USA can try and take over your nation.
| Risk Factor | Historical Status | 2026 Reality |
| Legal Stability | High (Rule of Law) | Medium (Rule by Executive Decree) |
| Treaty Reliability | High (Senate Ratified) | Low (Executive Agreements) |
| Judicial Check | Absolute | Reactive (Courts can be bypassed or ignored) |
| Sovereign Status | "Stable Ally" | "Transactional Partner" |
Conclusion
Investing time and money in a relationship with the U.S. is no longer a "safe-haven" move; it is a high-yield, high-volatility trade. The system has moved from a "Constitutional Democracy" toward a "Delegated Executive State," where the President holds the steering wheel with few immediate brakes. Anytjing can happen it depends on mood a single individual with almost zero checks and balances
No comments:
Post a Comment